Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd96eafbfe035870c3734fc52d4530a0e5cef3cf1d1101f2574c6f5a9d63277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siena Saintsof Duke Blue Devils, Siena Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,360 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 3,980$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.55 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Siena Saints | 51c | 3,441$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.69 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Siena Saints | 57c | 1,254$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.22 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Siena Saints | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 991.31$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Siena Saints | 53c | 779.52$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.48 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Siena Saints | 57c | 749.87$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.51 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 505.74$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…cef5backed Siena Saints | 55c | 495.67$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Siena Saints | 54c | 460.6$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.08 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 419.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 413.37$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…8745backed Siena Saints | 55c | 254.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 204.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…ca01backed Siena Saints | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Siena Saints | 66c | 198.43$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 198.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Siena Saints | 53c | 141.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Siena Saints | 55c | 132.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Duke Blue Devils | 41c | 125.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Siena Saints | 56c | 93.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…1f08backed Siena Saints | 67c | 78.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 69.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Siena Saints | 57c | 49.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…1fd2backed Siena Saints | 55c | 43.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 40.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…6b6ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Siena Saints | 51c | 37.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Siena Saints | 57c | 33.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…8260backed Siena Saints | 55c | 31.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Siena Saints | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Siena Saints | 54c | 29.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 125 | 37.6%47 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Siena Saints | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…0f0dbacked Siena Saints | 55c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)this page
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 135.5Over won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 136.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 137.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 144.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 150.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-27.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-28.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-8.5)Siena Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.