Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 136.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5fb634b21bec9dac18bb1dd7abafa786b2d4c5c77e31a7b11a52b3eabad78fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,422 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 49c | 24,412$11,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,926.34 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 11,007$5,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,393.98 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 51c | 8,263$4,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,215.65 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 7,895$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,935.69 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.83 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 54c | 991.31$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 47c | 573.79$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.68 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Under | 53c | 561.1$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.72 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 220.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 48c | 101.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 51c | 101.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Under | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked Under | 51c | 95.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 75.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 50c | 62.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 51c | 58.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…32eebacked Under | 50c | 49.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 47c | 44.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Over | 51c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked Under | 50c | 32.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 51c | 25.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…46e2backed Under | 54c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 68c | 14.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 136.5this page
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 135.5Over won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 137.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 144.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 150.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-27.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-28.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-8.5)Siena Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.