TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Siena Saintsof Duke Blue Devils, Siena Saints
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,131 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Siena Saints50c2,946$1,485 inWon+$1,460.7641752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Siena Saints50c2,470$1,227 inWon+$1,243.1934343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils51c2,294$1,179 inLost-$1,179.0612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Duke Blue Devils53c2,217$1,183 inLost-$1,183.312,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Duke Blue Devils48c2,156$1,024 inLost-$1,024.2613746.7%64 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Duke Blue Devils51c1,983$1,011 inLost-$1,010.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Siena Saints49c1,901$928 inWon+$973.0146246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Duke Blue Devils51c1,399$713 inLost-$713.4522645.6%103 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf827…7992backed Siena Saints46c1,303$598 inWon+$704.431723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Siena Saints51c1,100$561 inWon+$53922349.3%110 W · 113 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Siena Saints52c1,096$569 inWon+$526.6210543.8%46 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Siena Saints48c1,033$496 inWon+$537.552334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Duke Blue Devils53c431.98$228 inLost-$227.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Siena Saints51c420.84$213 inWon+$207.8452843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a45…1405backed Duke Blue Devils52c305.75$159 inLost-$158.64953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Siena Saints55c305.74$167 inWon+$138.863,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Duke Blue Devils51c198.25$101 inLost-$101.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5f…39c7backed Siena Saints52c135.35$70 inWon+$64.971963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Duke Blue Devils49c101.16$50 inLost-$49.571936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Duke Blue Devils55c99.13$55 inLost-$54.5223149.8%115 W · 116 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Duke Blue Devils52c99.13$52 inLost-$51.552240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Duke Blue Devils48c72.28$35 inLost-$34.6964647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Siena Saints52c64.28$33 inWon+$30.8513456.7%76 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Duke Blue Devils47c63.27$30 inLost-$29.7417647.2%83 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c8…6a7dbacked Siena Saints55c54.01$30 inWon+$24.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92dc…7916backed Duke Blue Devils49c50.57$25 inLost-$24.785044%22 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ca…b27abacked Siena Saints52c49.56$26 inWon+$23.79837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8328…0a5cbacked Duke Blue Devils53c46.76$25 inLost-$24.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x804c…7846backed Duke Blue Devils55c45.4$25 inLost-$24.784032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Duke Blue Devils48c44.61$21 inLost-$21.4111854.2%64 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77f…e59abacked Duke Blue Devils51c40.43$21 inLost-$20.622524%6 W · 19 L-7.0wins-0.28per pick52cpaid-57.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Siena Saints50c31.81$16 inWon+$15.871,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd9…1159backed Duke Blue Devils49c29.74$15 inLost-$14.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.