Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-28.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508df80d821a13ac44ce71f86dcc6f322e9f02b200f4df6f7cd24127c0cbffda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siena Saintsof Duke Blue Devils, Siena Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,443 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 12,782$6,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,346.54 | 251 | 45.8%115 W · 136 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Siena Saints | 52c | 7,282$3,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,495.53 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Siena Saints | 50c | 6,188$3,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.42 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 4,730$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.49 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Siena Saints | 52c | 4,355$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.54 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…dcb1backed Siena Saints | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…da8bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 3,758$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Siena Saints | 52c | 3,326$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.66 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Siena Saints | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 2,486$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.09 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 1,521$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.06 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Siena Saints | 53c | 1,437$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.56 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 1,365$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Siena Saints | 49c | 1,284$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.6 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 520.42$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Duke Blue Devils | 10c | 511.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Siena Saints | 53c | 497.07$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.62 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Siena Saints | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 289.12$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Siena Saints | 52c | 247.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 170 | 51.2%87 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Siena Saints | 53c | 215.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Siena Saints | 51c | 204.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Siena Saints | 52c | 196.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Siena Saints | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Siena Saints | 49c | 164.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 147.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 135.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 101.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…f351backed Siena Saints | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Siena Saints | 53c | 93.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Siena Saints | 53c | 93.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 65.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Siena Saints | 50c | 65.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Duke Blue Devils | 39c | 61.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Siena Saints | 51c | 60.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 55.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Duke Blue Devils | 23c | 52.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Siena Saints | 49c | 51.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…28e5backed Siena Saints | 49c | 50.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 46.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1329…e43abacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 43.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…da96backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d83…d1dabacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…33bebacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 37.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Siena Saints | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…3446backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 37.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Siena Saints | 50c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e65dbacked Siena Saints | 49c | 34.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 32.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…5471backed Siena Saints | 54c | 30.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 30.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…15e2backed Siena Saints | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…3b27backed Siena Saints | 54c | 24.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 23.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Siena Saints | 53c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-28.5)this page
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 135.5Over won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 136.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 137.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 144.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 150.5Under won
- Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-10.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-27.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)Siena Saints won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-8.5)Siena Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.