TailMyPicks
Market

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
AFC Ajaxof AFC Ajax, Shelbourne FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,148 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf519…906bbacked AFC Ajax79c3,722$2,940 inWon+$781.585269.2%36 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Shelbourne FC21c2,778$583 inLost-$583.262,34441.6%976 W · 1,368 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Shelbourne FC12c1,197$147 inLost-$146.882,47833.9%840 W · 1,638 L-95.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shelbourne FC20c344.45$68 inLost-$67.981440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed AFC Ajax78c305.06$237 inWon+$68.065459.3%32 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed AFC Ajax70c285.9$199 inWon+$86.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Shelbourne FC22c210.46$46 inLost-$46.31,03746.1%478 W · 559 L-2.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722a…d6edbacked AFC Ajax79c197.7$156 inWon+$41.522568%17 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dff…bb1ebacked Shelbourne FC30c190.77$57 inLost-$57.232352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Shelbourne FC21c174.84$37 inLost-$36.721,61138.8%625 W · 986 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Shelbourne FC31c99$31 inLost-$30.6937143.7%162 W · 209 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aba…1910backed AFC Ajax78c83.46$65 inWon+$18.462181%17 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Shelbourne FC23c80$18 inLost-$18.479554.1%430 W · 365 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…db88backed AFC Ajax80c62.5$50 inWon+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc9…a105backed AFC Ajax80c37.5$30 inWon+$7.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick76cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7150…6a8abacked AFC Ajax69c30$21 inWon+$9.32770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+36.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1934…474cbacked AFC Ajax77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.97580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed AFC Ajax78c19.53$15 inWon+$4.31,11735.8%400 W · 717 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.