Europa Conference League · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b781411e012defac3f9f80aba69f6899900ae8e1c0b100f1965155674977690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 48c | 2,382$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.6 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 2,298$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.92 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 30c | 2,032$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.62 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 64c | 1,738$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.05 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 1,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…cb2cbacked Under | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 42c | 766.09$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.76 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 681.43$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.06 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 75c | 616.53$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.07 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Over | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Over | 55c | 546.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 28c | 431.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Over | 71c | 348.01$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 55c | 273.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +11.3wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 44c | 267.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 70c | 217.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 158.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 22c | 143.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 46c | 138.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 40c | 136.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 99.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 56c | 81.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 56c | 78.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…ad52backed Under | 45c | 62.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 25c | 56.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 77c | 43.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Over | 57c | 41.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Over | 56c | 36.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 56c | 35.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 45c | 34.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 30.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 29.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0a2dbacked Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 44c | 23.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 58c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: AFC Ajax O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: AFC Ajax O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: Shelbourne FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)Shelbourne FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.