Europa Conference League · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbd6ba5f9c804650febb1e7730ecf6ac84e451f7304c9d58ece2056c9e185ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 3,866$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.2 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 58c | 2,844$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.42 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,904$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.37 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 1,744$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.89 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 1,516$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.53 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.99 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 44c | 922.06$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.35 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 69c | 717.81$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.95 | 352 | 46.3%163 W · 189 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…5297backed Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Over | 37c | 397.74$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 27c | 331.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 250.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 22c | 155.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 154.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Over | 43c | 117.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 114.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 639 | 57.1%365 W · 274 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 12c | 109.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 104.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 64c | 104.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Over | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 27c | 97.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 43c | 88.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 49c | 80.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 60c | 74.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 56c | 67.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 66.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 59.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 65c | 55.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 503 | 54.7%275 W · 228 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 58c | 36.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 61c | 35.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 35.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 62c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 72c | 29.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 64c | 27.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 64c | 26.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 61c | 25.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 58c | 23.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 63c | 20.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 443 | 56.2%249 W · 194 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 4.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: AFC Ajax O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: AFC Ajax O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: Shelbourne FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)Shelbourne FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.