Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8f17bd61d4aeb8b344744c3b29a60aa63e7a561df21f144755b9231222fef8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shelbourne FCof AFC Ajax, Shelbourne FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed AFC Ajax | 62c | 16,000$9,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,888.87 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Shelbourne FC | 38c | 11,616$4,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,198.49 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Shelbourne FC | 38c | 3,303$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.91 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Shelbourne FC | 20c | 3,156$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.45 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked AFC Ajax | 62c | 2,757$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.34 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Shelbourne FC | 40c | 1,542$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.35 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Shelbourne FC | 39c | 855.11$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.43 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Shelbourne FC | 39c | 690.44$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.46 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed AFC Ajax | 60c | 669.05$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.43 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shelbourne FC | 3c | 569.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.16 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…bf0fbacked Shelbourne FC | 45c | 306.87$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked AFC Ajax | 58c | 300$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.46 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked AFC Ajax | 52c | 229.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Shelbourne FC | 48c | 226.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…ddd3backed Shelbourne FC | 42c | 179.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked AFC Ajax | 66c | 167.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Shelbourne FC | 39c | 158.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked AFC Ajax | 57c | 122.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Shelbourne FC | 42c | 115.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Shelbourne FC | 38c | 84.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Shelbourne FC | 40c | 81.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Shelbourne FC | 38c | 75.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Shelbourne FC | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed AFC Ajax | 58c | 69.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Shelbourne FC | 44c | 57.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Shelbourne FC | 42c | 54.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed AFC Ajax | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Shelbourne FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shelbourne FC | 39c | 48.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shelbourne FC | 40c | 45.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Shelbourne FC | 39c | 43.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed AFC Ajax | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked AFC Ajax | 54c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked AFC Ajax | 63c | 39.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed AFC Ajax | 63c | 38.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Shelbourne FC | 39c | 37.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Shelbourne FC | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…a782backed AFC Ajax | 62c | 37.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shelbourne FC | 35c | 35.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Shelbourne FC | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed AFC Ajax | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 29.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…d2c9backed AFC Ajax | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)this page
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: AFC Ajax O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: AFC Ajax O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: Shelbourne FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.