TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,019 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over31c1,500$465 inLost-$464.989538.9%37 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over23c634.34$145 inLost-$144.541,60438.9%624 W · 980 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed Over21c400$84 inLost-$841233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under79c303$239 inWon+$63.6337446.8%175 W · 199 L+27.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7150…6a8abacked Over22c300$65 inLost-$652770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+36.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf6bf…05b6backed Over36c259.58$93 inLost-$93.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over31c258$80 inLost-$79.9878344.8%351 W · 432 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Under70c239.39$169 inWon+$70.772777.8%21 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over17c175.07$30 inLost-$29.6581440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over33c165.9$55 inLost-$55.471,03346.1%476 W · 557 L-3.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over7c163.59$12 inLost-$11.862,47333.9%839 W · 1,634 L-95.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over21c90.67$19 inLost-$19.041,11435.8%399 W · 715 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Over37c81.08$30 inLost-$3014352.4%75 W · 68 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Under74c80.23$59 inWon+$20.865444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Over39c63$25 inLost-$24.571145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under79c48.95$39 inWon+$10.2850154.7%274 W · 227 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Under66c45.45$30 inWon+$15.453865.8%25 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under79c39.52$31 inWon+$8.2939357.5%226 W · 167 L+17.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe29c…a31dbacked Over36c30.27$11 inLost-$10.755052%26 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under79c26.99$21 inWon+$5.671,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under79c26.77$21 inWon+$5.6237046.5%172 W · 198 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under75c26.33$20 inWon+$6.6458061.9%359 W · 221 L+22.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under75c26.13$20 inWon+$6.5285260.9%519 W · 333 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under80c17.23$14 inWon+$3.5112254.1%66 W · 56 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.