Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd36fc150be9204a8853c2f0cfab79163176ef30744fec632c495e30a6d03ea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 35c | 414.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.85 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 395.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.72 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 186.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 176$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 72c | 169.87$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 164.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 34c | 146.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 125.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 120.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 65c | 120.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 41c | 118.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 114.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 112.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 106.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 37c | 105.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 103.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 43c | 91.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 88.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 45c | 86.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked No | 70c | 86.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 84.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 80.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 78.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked No | 80c | 78.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 77.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 24c | 70.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 66c | 66.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 42c | 61.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 55.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 54.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 23c | 53.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 67c | 53.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…6cd1backed No | 75c | 50.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8e…6238backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…3fd6backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…f861backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 21c | 48.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes | 52c | 47.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 43.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 34c | 39.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 38.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 37.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 37.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 36.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 59c | 34.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 73c | 34.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 30.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 45c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 61c | 27.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked Yes | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 43c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 66c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 58c | 17.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 80c | 16.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 16.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 69c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…2239backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 14.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.