TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes35c414.75$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.8551733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No76c395.64$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7232872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No17c186.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.113,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c176$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.575,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed No72c169.87$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.123161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c164.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes34c146.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8529748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No80c125.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c120.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No65c120.44$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.348149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes41c118.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3422746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes22c114.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.974,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c112.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c106.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.087,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes37c105.23$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2319427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c103.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6923436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.310850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No28c98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.114,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7782…f35fbacked No43c91.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.734746.8%22 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No75c88.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.012,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes45c86.84$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4718035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b52…589abacked No70c86.65$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.59128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-88.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes25c84.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.364,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c80.1$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c79.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.393,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes31c78.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.686,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22d7…608dbacked No80c78.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.331643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c77.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.792,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes24c70.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.793743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No66c66.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No42c61.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.844942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.612,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes25c55.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.711,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No45c54.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.951,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8473…5511backed Yes23c53.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.079128.6%26 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x182a…f847backed Yes67c53.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4618762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65f4…6cd1backed No75c50.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d8e…6238backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+95.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf748…3fd6backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…f861backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51250%6 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+85.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c49.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4953353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No21c48.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.292,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes52c47.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.742259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c43.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.097,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No46c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.734647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.619531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No65c39.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9964960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes34c39.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.165841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes31c38.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.652828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No51c37.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No44c37.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes31c37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.353,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c36.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.62,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No59c34.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6419052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c34.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.815,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No73c34.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9846667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.462,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c31.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.543,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…bf91backed Yes33c31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.795536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes39c30.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No49c30.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.962,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No45c29.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5924139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x364a…4363backed No68c29.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.146863.2%43 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No61c27.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1161752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f13…edcfbacked Yes48c25.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.161687.5%14 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+55.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c25.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No43c24.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.744546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No72c24.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No48c22.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.961,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes49c22.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4610133.7%34 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c18.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.241,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes66c18.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1914161%86 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…813abacked Yes58c17.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.223360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes80c16.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.387060%42 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No78c16.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8771464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No69c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.041,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No69c15.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.728441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b67…2239backed Yes67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No77c14.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.911,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.