Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd4bcd301574705c4e16b0b692d048e1716003249c9d81c4ccb8e27a40c2e2ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 74c | 1,575$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.94 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed No | 15c | 1,131$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 7c | 1,018$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 542.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 213 | 48.4%103 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 35c | 484.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 364.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -11.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…fab0backed Yes | 74c | 352.3$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 74c | 303.95$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 271.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 393 | 30.3%119 W · 274 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 19c | 270.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 58c | 241.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 523 | 28.3%148 W · 375 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 37c | 211.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 39c | 207.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…2b54backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…8bd7backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 186.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 295 | 48.1%142 W · 153 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 11c | 182.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 162 | 64.8%105 W · 57 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 71c | 125.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb811…7f7dbacked No | 25c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 31c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 36c | 100.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…ce38backed Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 12c | 98.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 24c | 60.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…cca1backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 59.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 320 | 55%176 W · 144 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…c4b8backed Yes | 66c | 45.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…91c5backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…3a6cbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 35c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…597cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…605ebacked Yes | 74c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 215 | 57.2%123 W · 92 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.