La Liga · resolved market
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd65485303ce7be22c979faa8398402fafb998e0b8a17d62deee6416a94dcce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 37c | 2,526$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Over | 37c | 2,002$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 67c | 1,927$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.94 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 11c | 1,600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…c109backed Under | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 37c | 1,100$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 24c | 979.88$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.59 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 920.01$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.26 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 63c | 813.88$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.14 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 64c | 796.88$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.88 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 19c | 787.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Over | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…c800backed Over | 36c | 554.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 38c | 507$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.57 | 265 | 50.9%135 W · 130 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…67a5backed Under | 63c | 476.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 433.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed Under | 61c | 381.72$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…d812backed Over | 39c | 338.46$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 241.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 33c | 226.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…678abacked Over | 36c | 225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 77c | 210.39$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 64c | 167.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 37c | 137.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 148 | 50.7%75 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 36c | 112.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 62c | 104$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…2bf7backed Over | 40c | 100.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 97.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 36c | 92.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1864…3904backed Over | 37c | 78.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 65c | 77.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Over | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 36c | 56.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…5e07backed Under | 63c | 44.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Under | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Under | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Over | 36c | 34.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Under | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 66c | 23.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Under | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…ae0dbacked Under | 62c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 307 | 49.2%151 W · 156 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Under | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…5f34backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.