TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

La Liga · resolved market

Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Real Madrid CFof Real Madrid CF, Valencia CF
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in La Liga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac47…d234backed Real Madrid CF35c82,348$28,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,526.321947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Valencia CF64c50,817$32,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,557.569748.5%47 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Valencia CF65c32,500$21,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,124.9924145.2%109 W · 132 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Valencia CF68c23,487$15,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,881.054,72947.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Real Madrid CF33c15,426$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,340.5690843.6%396 W · 512 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Valencia CF63c8,100$5,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1038041.3%33 W · 47 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Real Madrid CF36c8,086$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,175.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+105.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Real Madrid CF37c6,700$2,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,24164046.9%300 W · 340 L-2.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Real Madrid CF36c5,746$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,650.663342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Valencia CF64c5,448$3,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,486.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-51.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Valencia CF65c3,077$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Valencia CF64c3,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9207349.3%36 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Real Madrid CF27c2,854$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.621957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Valencia CF63c2,690$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.6342851.4%220 W · 208 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Valencia CF64c1,860$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.155152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f74…f2a6backed Real Madrid CF33c1,488$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.885646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Real Madrid CF35c1,401$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.3721641.7%90 W · 126 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Valencia CF71c1,167$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.281,79851.4%924 W · 874 L+6.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Real Madrid CF36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.181952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Real Madrid CF34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6602944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c31…23cbbacked Valencia CF66c909.09$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed Real Madrid CF35c857.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.147431.1%23 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7839…54cbbacked Real Madrid CF38c789.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.471457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Real Madrid CF35c771.43$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.431250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ea…f0d2backed Real Madrid CF35c742.86$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.862748.1%13 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+33.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Valencia CF65c687.07$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.952,33948.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L+1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2e…9e01backed Real Madrid CF22c636.36$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.361770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+41%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x908e…2291backed Real Madrid CF38c613.05$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+130.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Real Madrid CF34c600$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3962025%5 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed Valencia CF67c597.01$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Real Madrid CF34c591.8$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.5920449.5%101 W · 103 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a51…d812backed Real Madrid CF35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.43837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Valencia CF64c564.27$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.7153246.1%245 W · 287 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Real Madrid CF22c493$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3912944.2%57 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Real Madrid CF32c471.72$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.771225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Real Madrid CF37c446.76$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.461833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Valencia CF65c426$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.935148.4%170 W · 181 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Real Madrid CF22c410$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.815246.1%70 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9078backed Real Madrid CF37c408.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.864139%16 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Real Madrid CF27c355.24$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.3935145.6%160 W · 191 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Real Madrid CF36c350$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22434252%178 W · 164 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Real Madrid CF29c349.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.662161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+75.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x768f…83afbacked Real Madrid CF35c318.29$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed Real Madrid CF35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19522540.4%91 W · 134 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Valencia CF64c299.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.994447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9684…16ecbacked Valencia CF67c298.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0b…0eb7backed Real Madrid CF35c289.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.712055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Valencia CF63c238.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15032145.8%147 W · 174 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7226…873dbacked Valencia CF65c224.27$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked Real Madrid CF37c192.82$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.911149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Real Madrid CF26c178.06$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.078268.3%56 W · 26 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+42.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc58b…cba8backed Real Madrid CF34c176.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.47633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981f…8993backed Real Madrid CF37c162.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x368e…84d4backed Real Madrid CF35c155.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a7…a2f0backed Valencia CF68c154.41$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Real Madrid CF23c152.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1411547%54 W · 61 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Valencia CF66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009262%57 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Valencia CF74c148.77$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4715443.5%67 W · 87 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Real Madrid CF34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad7…c097backed Real Madrid CF35c143.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.273040%12 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Real Madrid CF35c141.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.922441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Real Madrid CF36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.895834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Madrid CF37c131.17$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.221,65143.9%724 W · 927 L-21.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Real Madrid CF30c130.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.062552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Valencia CF64c129$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.562138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Valencia CF64c128.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.172846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a1…e6f5backed Real Madrid CF37c117$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.711643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Valencia CF66c113.64$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757844.9%35 W · 43 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Real Madrid CF36c111.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1111427.2%31 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Valencia CF65c111.07$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.721457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Valencia CF65c110.94$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.111546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Real Madrid CF52c110.17$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.113,44443%1,482 W · 1,962 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Real Madrid CF38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2626242.7%112 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Real Madrid CF29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.451618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b1…5576backed Real Madrid CF29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Real Madrid CF37c101$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.634254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Real Madrid CF33c100.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6610335%36 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Real Madrid CF36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Valencia CF64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Real Madrid CF34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6620341.9%85 W · 118 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed Real Madrid CF28c99.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.941471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Valencia CF58c99.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4557252.1%298 W · 274 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…159abacked Real Madrid CF26c97.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+151.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Real Madrid CF35c89.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1714850.7%75 W · 73 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Real Madrid CF36c80.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.364938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Valencia CF63c79.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.394746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Valencia CF64c79.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.023652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7676…ada4backed Real Madrid CF38c78.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.951457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c27…494bbacked Real Madrid CF32c78.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.01742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac3f…1966backed Real Madrid CF43c78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.463650%18 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Valencia CF66c76.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Valencia CF64c76.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e1c…a9a5backed Valencia CF67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…9815backed Valencia CF67c73.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.991631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-44.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x279a…ffc2backed Real Madrid CF35c71.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4310152.5%53 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3526…8b74backed Valencia CF64c70.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Real Madrid CF37c66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.581735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Valencia CF65c65.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.751163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb752…aea9backed Valencia CF67c65.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.811566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Real Madrid CF38c60.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.