Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd71f0da6eb1cbb079e2b14a9ad483ddbe38301e1c3f4e341cfbd4b333a00cb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 70c | 1,940$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.18 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 626.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 64c | 590.11$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…5aa5backed Yes | 54c | 398.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.94$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 280.35$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 279.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 65c | 276.12$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 261.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 229.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 70c | 159.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 61c | 156.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 65c | 149.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 147.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 132.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 51c | 122.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 39c | 119.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 41c | 98.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 47c | 80.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 71.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 70.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 66.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed No | 31c | 65.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 64.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 43c | 60.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 45c | 60.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 37c | 53.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 51.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 48.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…bb58backed Yes | 69c | 46.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 45.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 40c | 45.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 32c | 43.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…cc5bbacked Yes | 58c | 41.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 41c | 38.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 41c | 37.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 36.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 38c | 36.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 48c | 33.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…ca0abacked Yes | 58c | 33.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…4681backed Yes | 36c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 30.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 26.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 26.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 59c | 24.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 61c | 23.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 63c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 68c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 18.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 59c | 17.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.