Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd86b89971a603925c2ae6662ecbd5b6ed700de4440cb935aa0c64282fc2ab16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Up | 22c | 5,810$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.11 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 69c | 2,484$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.76 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed Down | 61c | 1,162$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 77c | 1,058$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.45 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Up | 20c | 1,034$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 77c | 1,000$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 68c | 844.44$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 79c | 805.54$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.92 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 24c | 743.58$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.85 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 40c | 700$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.95 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 64c | 658.86$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.36 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 18c | 641.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 72c | 403.3$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 75c | 351.86$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…ee4dbacked Down | 68c | 339.93$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 34c | 323.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Up | 15c | 321.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Up | 10c | 232.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…162cbacked Up | 13c | 214.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 43c | 200.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Down | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…4035backed Down | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Down | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Down | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fef…73c2backed Up | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Up | 40c | 195.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Down | 56c | 193.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Down | 63c | 180$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…9665backed Up | 28c | 113.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…3011backed Up | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Up | 26c | 87.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…ac1cbacked Down | 77c | 83.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…1ca6backed Up | 19c | 83.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 61c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 29c | 78.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Up | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…e854backed Up | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Down | 76c | 62.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked Up | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed Up | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 76c | 30.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Down | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Down | 62c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.