Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8c34e8a06cc142c97bb879852877dc3189ce411e3346693907b12d5a6e892b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92c4…db23backed Yes | 0c | 13,354$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 775.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 25c | 415$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 269.38$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed Yes | 59c | 229$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 22c | 223$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 57c | 222.6$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 215.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 196.95$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 188.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 65c | 153.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 147.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 55c | 145.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 57c | 140.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 134.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 41c | 129.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 50c | 120.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 119.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 108.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 82.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 64c | 62.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 63c | 62.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 59.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 59.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 55.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 52.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 78c | 50.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 44.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 43.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 41.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 36c | 40.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 39.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 37.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 35.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 33.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 53c | 30.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 28.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 21.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 19.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 71°F or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.