Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8c5c3ff6a609c38cb12aaa50052e92b7c0e9342c37038c3a225d9884ab94fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 807.28$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 555.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 300.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 270.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 223$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 220.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked Yes | 34c | 199.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 187.02$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 23c | 152.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 139.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 137.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 19c | 108.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 105.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 30c | 103.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 28c | 100.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 94.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…a9c4backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 82.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 80.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 66c | 76.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 75.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 69.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 33c | 68.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 70c | 63.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 63.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 63.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…f861backed Yes | 21c | 62.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 56.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 52.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 51.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 50.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 47.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 22c | 47.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 45c | 44.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 42.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 41.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 32c | 37.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 34c | 35.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 30.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 61c | 26.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.