Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x364584628f27f83e92fbbb30f7c058e4e5cd3a6d754c5e5f50d4d3ef4ae8b992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 797.53$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.47 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 20c | 722.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 592.37$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 522.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 466.08$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 80c | 368.79$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 64c | 358.53$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 16c | 308.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.13 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 293.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 291.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 272.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 264.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 36c | 260.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 20c | 250.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 244.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.74 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 236$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 9c | 223.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.11 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 223$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 13c | 220.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.87 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 217.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 198.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 38c | 198.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 21c | 193.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 73c | 189.81$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 180$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 176.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 59c | 174.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 16c | 167.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.57 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed No | 34c | 161$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 21c | 136.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 16c | 135.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 23c | 131.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 130.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 24c | 125.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 23c | 123.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 122.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 122.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 14c | 120.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 15c | 119.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 113.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 101.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 98.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 35c | 98.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 28c | 98.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 11c | 97.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 96.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 19c | 96.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 19c | 96.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…267dbacked Yes | 11c | 94.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 93.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 54c | 93.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 87.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 84.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 81.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 81.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 25c | 79.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 14c | 76.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 32c | 74.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 77c | 71.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 15c | 69.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 15c | 68.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 67.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 22c | 67.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 79c | 62.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 78c | 60.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 57.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 57.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 41c | 56.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 21c | 53.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 53.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 51.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 50.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed No | 68c | 49.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 49.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 52c | 48.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 45c | 45.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6aa…9062backed No | 36c | 42.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…2239backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 33c | 37.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 58c | 36.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 71c | 35.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed Yes | 79c | 34.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…6333backed Yes | 34c | 34.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 33.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 31.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed No | 77c | 30.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.