Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc4a0a1fe88ad8ac20cfddd7117fcda7ef99e5ca6cb58bd159e326ae27ad2d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 3c | 2,213$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,884$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 31c | 417.16$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 395$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 380.95$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 365.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 358.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 355.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 353.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 11c | 348.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 292.14$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 285.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 255.94$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 223$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 219$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 67c | 215$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 75c | 208.17$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 202.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked Yes | 32c | 199.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 199.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 28c | 198.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 178.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 32c | 157.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 154.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 31c | 150.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 149.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 146.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 22c | 145.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 24c | 139.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 15c | 137.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 24c | 136.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 131$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 119.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 34c | 118.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 54c | 110.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 13c | 105.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 104.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 29c | 103.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 103$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 102.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 19c | 101.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 99.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 96.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 94.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 91.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 87.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 72.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 70.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…962cbacked No | 72c | 67.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 64.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 63.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 69c | 63.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 68c | 58.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 58.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 80c | 54.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 53.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 52.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…412bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 31c | 47.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 46.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 32c | 46.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 46.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 31c | 45.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 28c | 45.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 31c | 45.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 24c | 45.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 31c | 43.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…6ff1backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 37.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 35.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed Yes | 40c | 33.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 31c | 33.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.