TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,800 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes3c2,213$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes32c1,884$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.511,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes31c417.16$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.326552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No68c395$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.41,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c380.95$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.045,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c365.76$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.083,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes34c358.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2331936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes22c355.75$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.82,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c353.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.878,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed Yes11c348.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8211459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c292.14$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c285.87$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.762,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c255.94$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c223$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c219$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.394,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No67c215$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.959053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed No75c208.17$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.767979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes22c202.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.411,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4266…ffacbacked Yes32c199.92$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.982161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes22c199.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.011,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes28c198.4$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3840132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes8c178.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.212,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes32c157.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes27c154.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.394,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes31c150.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.835325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.515529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes14c149.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.541,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c146.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.632,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes22c145.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.991,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes24c139.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7538830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes15c137.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.153053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes24c136.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.418222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes31c131$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.611,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No67c120$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.65538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c119.66$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.182,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6b7…223abacked Yes34c118.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-86.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes54c110.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.819545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes13c105.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7729219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c104.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.315,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes29c103.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No67c103$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.992,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No68c102.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9444058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No79c102.6$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.472,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes19c101.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7158922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287331.5%23 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3416937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c99.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.551,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No66c96.62$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.054,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c94.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.016,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes29c91.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.755,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No45c87.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2317747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c86$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.123,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.619552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c72.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.653,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No62c70.63$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1980957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.116453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4445675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3db4…962cbacked No72c67.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c64.6$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.039,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No72c64$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c63.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.634,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No69c63.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6210857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6117858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No68c58.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No68c58.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.83,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No80c54.69$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0616272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No66c53.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.91,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes33c52.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6352446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.552758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc697…412bbacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1713351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes31c47.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6719022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No63c46.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.191,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed Yes32c46.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.796048.3%29 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes32c46.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7930849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes31c45.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2127056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes28c45.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes31c45.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes24c45.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6166758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes30c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.744465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes31c43.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.382,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No43c42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9417947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c80…6ff1backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes55c38.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No50c37.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No43c35.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.262,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4591…7d89backed Yes40c33.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.483265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes31c33.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.326256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26653%35 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.