WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs Fever
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc3a0e853dd8131da64d3cdb0775cdd92683a69d41246d8a694c47285419ced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Feverof Aces, Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x460f…9eb7backed Aces | 67c | 30,375$20,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,252 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Aces | 16c | 21,965$3,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,458.21 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fever | 33c | 10,471$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,015.24 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fever | 33c | 10,050$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,733.5 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Aces | 62c | 7,121$4,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,414.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Fever | 37c | 4,493$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.73 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Fever | 35c | 3,200$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Fever | 38c | 3,052$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Fever | 34c | 2,712$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.85 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fever | 33c | 2,531$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.75 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Fever | 36c | 1,915$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.6 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Aces | 13c | 1,775$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.23 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Aces | 5c | 1,577$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Aces | 34c | 1,344$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fever | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Aces | 63c | 599.97$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Fever | 54c | 557.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.44 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Aces | 63c | 327.07$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Fever | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fever | 36c | 305$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Aces | 11c | 304.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Fever | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fever | 36c | 277$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.28 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Fever | 38c | 276$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fever | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Aces | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fever | 37c | 239.61$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Fever | 37c | 202.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Fever | 54c | 190.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Fever | 37c | 153.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Fever | 37c | 121$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Fever | 38c | 99.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Aces | 65c | 79.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fever | 35c | 77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Fever | 38c | 50.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fever | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Fever | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Aces | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Fever | 46c | 43.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Aces | 59c | 41.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…8d1cbacked Fever | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed Fever | 51c | 22.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…8ebfbacked Fever | 53c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.