TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLUE (-1.5) vs Apex Mission Impossible (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Apex Mission Impossibleof Blue Otter, Apex Mission Impossible
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda3a…381fbacked Apex Mission Impossible39c6,435$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,918.891,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Apex Mission Impossible38c3,535$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.9167056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Blue Otter62c3,070$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.3713135.1%46 W · 85 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Blue Otter59c3,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.971,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Blue Otter60c1,759$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.71,01447.6%483 W · 531 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Apex Mission Impossible43c1,360$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.21,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Blue Otter60c1,139$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.211959.7%71 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Blue Otter56c1,080$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.1860849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Apex Mission Impossible39c1,065$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.559750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Blue Otter57c1,028$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.334250.6%173 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Apex Mission Impossible40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002,17853.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L+61.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Blue Otter62c980.6$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.9711354%61 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Blue Otter60c935.2$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.1222142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Blue Otter62c764.29$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.8178549.9%392 W · 393 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Blue Otter60c724.15$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.8764943.1%280 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Apex Mission Impossible55c723.11$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.5912352%64 W · 59 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Apex Mission Impossible43c593.92$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.118653.2%99 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e00…ba80backed Blue Otter61c537.13$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.652055%11 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Apex Mission Impossible40c500$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2991,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Apex Mission Impossible54c493.06$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.994755.3%26 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Blue Otter61c456.91$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.328448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Apex Mission Impossible42c386.08$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.9310165.3%66 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Apex Mission Impossible41c370.11$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.8716339.3%64 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Apex Mission Impossible41c358.83$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.7110355.3%57 W · 46 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Apex Mission Impossible42c355.19$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.017865.4%51 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Blue Otter60c341.6$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.968058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1979…c15cbacked Blue Otter64c292.54$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Blue Otter60c284.67$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.826042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Blue Otter60c278.16$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.924032.1%77 W · 163 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed Blue Otter60c240.75$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.459244.6%41 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Blue Otter60c236.09$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6631838.1%121 W · 197 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Apex Mission Impossible47c217.89$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.84257.1%24 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed Blue Otter41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8217543.4%76 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Blue Otter41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8225340.7%103 W · 150 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Blue Otter59c199.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Blue Otter60c179.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7510253.9%55 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Blue Otter60c170.52$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4925640.6%104 W · 152 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x623d…3aeebacked Blue Otter60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.65042%21 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Blue Otter57c162.37$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5551247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Apex Mission Impossible42c160.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8346154.9%253 W · 208 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d8…a577backed Blue Otter60c145.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.012245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Blue Otter60c144.45$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6718459.8%110 W · 74 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Apex Mission Impossible42c142.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8518560.5%112 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Apex Mission Impossible42c142.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8518356.8%104 W · 79 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Apex Mission Impossible42c142.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8526856.7%152 W · 116 L+1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked Apex Mission Impossible41c129.56$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0516254.3%88 W · 74 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Blue Otter41c128$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4820836.1%75 W · 133 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Apex Mission Impossible51c126.21$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2414561.4%89 W · 56 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Apex Mission Impossible66c115.93$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.538950.9%198 W · 191 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Blue Otter60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605232.7%17 W · 35 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Blue Otter41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4135048%168 W · 182 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Blue Otter41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4138743.9%170 W · 217 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Blue Otter54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5431650.3%159 W · 157 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Apex Mission Impossible42c86.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9214450.7%73 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Apex Mission Impossible42c80.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6579864.3%513 W · 285 L+32.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Apex Mission Impossible41c75.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9675150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Apex Mission Impossible42c71.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.421,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Apex Mission Impossible41c70.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.558557.6%49 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Blue Otter41c64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2443040.9%176 W · 254 L-1.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Blue Otter41c64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2434235.7%122 W · 220 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Apex Mission Impossible41c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.628559.6%170 W · 115 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed85…c85abacked Apex Mission Impossible42c53.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1712067.5%81 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Apex Mission Impossible45c53.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0824356%136 W · 107 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked Blue Otter41c43.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9917739.5%70 W · 107 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a41…15b2backed Blue Otter59c42.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9513842.8%59 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed Apex Mission Impossible42c40.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5110038%38 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4daa…8923backed Apex Mission Impossible49c38.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.783871.1%27 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43f5…40d0backed Blue Otter60c38.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.866063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Blue Otter60c37.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2515356.9%87 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x197c…544bbacked Blue Otter60c37.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.255358.5%31 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6472…81e3backed Blue Otter60c37.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.258257.3%47 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Apex Mission Impossible41c36.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.513759.9%82 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68f9…50c2backed Apex Mission Impossible47c35.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+110.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Apex Mission Impossible43c35.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1849514.3%71 W · 424 L-70.5wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-50.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Apex Mission Impossible48c35.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.311,57748.4%764 W · 813 L+17.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef2…5584backed Blue Otter57c34.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.486544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Apex Mission Impossible40c34.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4436047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Blue Otter41c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1259740.7%243 W · 354 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…85f8backed Blue Otter62c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.593534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed Blue Otter62c29.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5329948.8%146 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Blue Otter62c27.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.861,39944.9%628 W · 771 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d30…11f1backed Blue Otter40c26.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.475541.8%23 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d6…3cf4backed Blue Otter60c19.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.811872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa590…271cbacked Blue Otter62c17.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.753548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.