South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe1a2e2450d0d9caa59152e836187e7ff5f22f4cbd2c36b495108d52242caa13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlas FCof CF Cruz Azul, Atlas FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed CF Cruz Azul | 38c | 12,140$4,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,595.74 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Atlas FC | 62c | 4,898$3,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Atlas FC | 60c | 3,600$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlas FC | 63c | 3,267$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.47 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlas FC | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.96 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlas FC | 62c | 2,622$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.56 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Atlas FC | 62c | 1,963$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.94 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked CF Cruz Azul | 37c | 1,834$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.57 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CF Cruz Azul | 40c | 1,324$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.98 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Atlas FC | 50c | 1,250$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.63 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed CF Cruz Azul | 40c | 1,176$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.59 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Atlas FC | 62c | 1,161$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.26 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked CF Cruz Azul | 40c | 983.8$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.52 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Atlas FC | 62c | 734$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.19 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed CF Cruz Azul | 40c | 615.38$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.85 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed CF Cruz Azul | 37c | 506.19$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Atlas FC | 62c | 493.43$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.36 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Atlas FC | 62c | 233.92$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Atlas FC | 61c | 227$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Atlas FC | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Atlas FC | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Atlas FC | 66c | 197$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Atlas FC | 62c | 183$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Atlas FC | 62c | 178$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Atlas FC | 62c | 169.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Atlas FC | 65c | 100.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed CF Cruz Azul | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed CF Cruz Azul | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Atlas FC | 73c | 93.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Atlas FC | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Atlas FC | 62c | 59.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlas FC | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed CF Cruz Azul | 37c | 49.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Atlas FC | 59c | 44.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed CF Cruz Azul | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Atlas FC | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Atlas FC | 56c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Atlas FC | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed Atlas FC | 63c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed CF Cruz Azul | 51c | 29.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Atlas FC | 66c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked CF Cruz Azul | 41c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed CF Cruz Azul | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Atlas FC | 58c | 24.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Atlas FC | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Atlas FC | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)Atlas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.