TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes63c781.47$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.574,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No8c342.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1331454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes71c233.45$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No15c218.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.582,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes48c218.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.973836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes45c191.95$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes75c185.91$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.594271.4%30 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No33c178.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.827841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No40c168.3$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.94,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes56c150.87$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes56c150$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes58c147.01$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.118,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No36c141.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No51c138.54$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.654,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes63c117.15$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.329,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No60c114.12$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.121,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No21c111$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.734,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07c…6c36backed Yes75c110.19$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.33759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No32c109.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.882,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes80c108.6$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.259239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb17…ee85backed Yes79c106.67$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.577739%30 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c102$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes73c101.37$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.372365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.441,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No48c95.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.931,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No52c94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.888458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes68c87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.841,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes58c83.82$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No36c82.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No32c65.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.821,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes76c59.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.322,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No42c59.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.944,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No31c55.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.073360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes70c54.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.162,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.622,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No45c52.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8343848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa63a…c954backed Yes48c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+125.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ad…4171backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152250%11 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2743663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1718740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…cd3cbacked No36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812851.6%66 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes60c47.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0954547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes42c47.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2113839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c45.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes57c42.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2123538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No43c42.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.813363.9%85 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes54c37.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5345253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e6…eb2bbacked No40c37.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3430…14c2backed Yes67c37.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes64c36.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2221451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes77c35.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.142,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No43c33.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.469846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4771464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes56c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.642,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes59c30.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.516955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No39c29.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dca…4183backed No38c26.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No42c25.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.812,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes63c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1846743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.258856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x047b…ea02backed Yes66c24.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No52c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.489145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes67c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.269744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes78c21.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.736,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.828649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf760…1334backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.614161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.634067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes71c17.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.112,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes73c16.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.467452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes70c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.