Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe6e772f36ca690e6832e96d50a3b8599b0205bf5baa53b5d11428d0a195bb74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Southampton FCof Arsenal FC, Southampton FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Southampton FC | 78c | 1,608$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.95 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Arsenal FC | 25c | 1,489$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.51 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d323backed Arsenal FC | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Arsenal FC | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 26c | 319.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Arsenal FC | 28c | 260.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Southampton FC | 74c | 184.24$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Southampton FC | 74c | 180.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Southampton FC | 75c | 176.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Southampton FC | 74c | 169.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Southampton FC | 74c | 158.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Southampton FC | 74c | 144.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Arsenal FC | 25c | 126.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Southampton FC | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Southampton FC | 74c | 109.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Arsenal FC | 28c | 106.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Southampton FC | 73c | 98.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Arsenal FC | 24c | 93.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arsenal FC | 26c | 69.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Southampton FC | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Southampton FC | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Southampton FC | 72c | 63.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Arsenal FC | 22c | 61.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Arsenal FC | 30c | 58.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Southampton FC | 73c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Arsenal FC | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Southampton FC | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Southampton FC | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Southampton FC | 75c | 37.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Southampton FC | 73c | 35.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Southampton FC | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Southampton FC | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…9f0fbacked Arsenal FC | 33c | 30.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Southampton FC | 76c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Southampton FC | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Southampton FC | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Southampton FC | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.