Premier League · resolved market
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89dfb34852321e3dcf6183e2fefb17bef9d0427594e00a82d661a1b2c30164f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 80c | 2,125$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 1,994$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.52 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 20c | 1,850$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.92 | 1,179 | 50%590 W · 589 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 1,644$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.87 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 77c | 1,120$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 23c | 608.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Over | 23c | 521.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 6c | 203.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 202.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 21c | 198$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 21c | 198$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 21c | 198$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 21c | 193.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 21c | 182.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Over | 21c | 94.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Over | 21c | 79.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.4wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 68.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…30cabacked Over | 23c | 64.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 76c | 29.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 411 | 60.1%247 W · 164 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 72c | 18.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.