Premier League · resolved market
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ca0bebb88aa283c08f501fc5615e8f39c7e3e7d196021e2f4b5aa7b2d5e8874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 4,721$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.45 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…2958backed Over | 76c | 3,150$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 2,268$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.21 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 17c | 710.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 79c | 667.3$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 17c | 586.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 21c | 549.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 17c | 500.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 19c | 374.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 355.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…e764backed Under | 22c | 298.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 17c | 267.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 16c | 261.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…0193backed Under | 14c | 241.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 26c | 163.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 75c | 160.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 16c | 126.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 70c | 110.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 17c | 104.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 74.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa478…2779backed Under | 26c | 70.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 72c | 65.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 24c | 56.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Under | 21c | 52.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 75c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.