Premier League · resolved market
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d43abbac9db81c32874fa1cb88f435a106d76e0dcb162515521afb5f78ede50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 38c | 5,332$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 61c | 3,332$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.51 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 39c | 3,282$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 61c | 2,152$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.09 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 66c | 2,087$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.71 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 2,086$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.73 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under | 61c | 1,130$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.7 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 1,098$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.17 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 926.15$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.36 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 34c | 755.7$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 36c | 694$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 64c | 680.14$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.26 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 642.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 546$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.08 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 39c | 512.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 31c | 500$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 38c | 371.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.09 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 67c | 318.24$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47f…d792backed Over | 37c | 283$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 30c | 276.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 35c | 270.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 20c | 245.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 22c | 231.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 73c | 207.63$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 201.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 66c | 186$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 36c | 169.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Over | 22c | 137.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 77c | 133.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…5dcfbacked Over | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 64c | 82.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 35c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 65c | 71.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 70c | 71.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 35c | 59.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under | 66c | 45.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 38c | 40.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 39c | 33.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 30c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Over | 39c | 30.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 71c | 30.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 36c | 29.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb446…2daabacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…502bbacked Over | 38c | 27.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…e458backed Under | 71c | 26.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…509fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 63c | 24.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 62c | 18.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 72c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Southampton FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Southampton FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.