TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Missouri Tigers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof Missouri Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,397 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Missouri Tigers55c180,462$99,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,238.232138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c174,118$78,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,764.9717742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c5,575$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.3341752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Missouri Tigers54c3,711$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.187047.1%33 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Arkansas Razorbacks54c1,969$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.322334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks49c1,780$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.7148855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Missouri Tigers52c1,727$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.4512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c1,288$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.5260954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Missouri Tigers51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5106923.2%16 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-49.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c816.12$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.389050%45 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Missouri Tigers54c799.98$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.9955749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c707.75$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.735,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Missouri Tigers52c657.99$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.152,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Missouri Tigers49c520.43$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.324,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Missouri Tigers52c520.25$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.714245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c437.13$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.0589645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c431$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c403.05$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.686640.9%27 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks70c381.38$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4213342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Missouri Tigers52c362.71$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18722640.7%92 W · 134 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks61c340.48$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.073,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c330.45$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.751,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Missouri Tigers52c272.54$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.988737.9%33 W · 54 L-12.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Missouri Tigers25c232.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1824951.8%129 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Arkansas Razorbacks47c210.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7815559.4%92 W · 63 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Missouri Tigers55c207.28$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1148353%44 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks48c204.41$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2883350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce1…b62cbacked Missouri Tigers54c184.72$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.137955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c175.62$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.845444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c172.4$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.110045%45 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Missouri Tigers46c165.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.821,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f34…94d0backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c149.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4311654.3%63 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Missouri Tigers36c137.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.62564%16 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Missouri Tigers54c129.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.741,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c128.87$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.317241.3%71 W · 101 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Arkansas Razorbacks65c119.13$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.192,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Arkansas Razorbacks49c115.88$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.162140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c5…4d7abacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c107.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.191050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b8…0d55backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c103.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Missouri Tigers52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5082846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Arkansas Razorbacks49c93.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4524857.3%142 W · 106 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c87.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.343860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcff9…795abacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c85.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa330…9d33backed Arkansas Razorbacks49c80.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.531338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c78.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c75.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.863,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc74c…2413backed Missouri Tigers42c70.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.742634.6%9 W · 17 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8583…e3e3backed Missouri Tigers50c69.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.833435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x89bc…a463backed Missouri Tigers54c64.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.72650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Missouri Tigers55c63.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.713050%65 W · 65 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks58c57.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9771655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Missouri Tigers49c56.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Arkansas Razorbacks49c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.569258.7%54 W · 38 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x959b…64edbacked Missouri Tigers52c55.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.751241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e84…fd20backed Missouri Tigers55c54.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c7e…b137backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c52.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.465547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks76c48.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6984854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Missouri Tigers35c46.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.431,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Missouri Tigers54c45.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7832652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c42.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.054250%21 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c42.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3658652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed Missouri Tigers53c41.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.817653.9%41 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfae1…7bb6backed Arkansas Razorbacks49c40.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.631973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+42.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Missouri Tigers49c39.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2222544.9%101 W · 124 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f7…1beebacked Missouri Tigers52c36.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c32.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6730050.7%152 W · 148 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c32.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6748551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1232850%164 W · 164 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd036…ec4bbacked Missouri Tigers55c27.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.872250%11 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c24.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3727650.7%140 W · 136 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks68c23.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.445362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd38b…bebdbacked Missouri Tigers51c19.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.