Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid flips Bybit in SOL Open Interest in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe738a3b04dde392607d6917c10e9f137acc52fb8211004d55660c96152f78ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 70c | 3,039$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 27c | 1,756$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.29 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 1,346$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.7 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 33c | 755.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…290fbacked Yes | 50c | 430.5$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…5e23backed No | 39c | 300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 57c | 221.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 60c | 215.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e7…5cc4backed Yes | 53c | 211.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…dda5backed Yes | 63c | 158.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…9524backed No | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…41c9backed Yes | 67c | 148.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 148.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…eccdbacked Yes | 58c | 140.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 36c | 123.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cd0abacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…85c0backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7af2…77ecbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e5…7622backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 65.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…edd6backed Yes | 66c | 51.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…295dbacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 34c | 37.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 38c | 37.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 36c | 32.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 59c | 28.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…2394backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b9…3729backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +289.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.