Fifa International · resolved market
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe778de8c09bfeb35c136762b56bfc89bfb6bbe263f3c1ff0178fc99a91c8619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 11c | 7,808$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 4c | 2,103$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,518$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac79…9585backed Yes | 1c | 1,427$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,340$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,163$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 806.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 12c | 582$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 487.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 483.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 4c | 402.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 4c | 385.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 10c | 345.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 5c | 295.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 248.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…8819backed Yes | 8c | 223.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 10c | 208.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…2a46backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 18c | 148.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 14c | 135.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 11c | 100.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 86.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 79c | 71.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…8e10backed No | 76c | 67.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…e405backed No | 76c | 65.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa893…f1d8backed No | 76c | 65.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…4886backed No | 76c | 63.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…edf1backed No | 76c | 41.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…25d2backed No | 76c | 26.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 185 | 38.9%72 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…48f8backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.