NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Seahawks - Will Lions win by 5 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe95cd6faa5c4799df4d1badad2b9352434811a70344e2ee1bdd67f1fb482f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Seahawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Seahawks | 52c | 1,019$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.49 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Lions | 50c | 806$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Lions | 49c | 543.04$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.95 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Seahawks | 50c | 506$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Seahawks | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Lions | 47c | 377.36$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Seahawks | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Seahawks | 52c | 241.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Lions | 45c | 233.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Lions | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Seahawks | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Seahawks | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Seahawks | 51c | 167.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Seahawks | 53c | 142.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Lions | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Lions | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Seahawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Seahawks | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Lions | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…83dbbacked Seahawks | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Seahawks | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…78a4backed Seahawks | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Lions | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Lions | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Seahawks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Seahawks | 53c | 33.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 97 | 29.9%29 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Lions | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +207.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Seahawks - Will Lions win by 5 or more points?this page
- Lions vs. Seahawks - Will there be 48 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.