NFL · resolved market
Spread: Browns (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebdbb97fd8f22b79759461a4e415e469e6dad749d4b9c2a4afcd29bb51be183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Browns, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Browns | 48c | 30,542$14,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,706.02 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Jets | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 52c | 8,944$4,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.96 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Browns | 48c | 8,674$4,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,163.3 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jets | 51c | 5,742$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.53 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Jets | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Jets | 52c | 1,957$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.18 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Browns | 48c | 1,780$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.67 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Browns | 47c | 1,775$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.15 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jets | 52c | 1,688$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.68 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Browns | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jets | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jets | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Browns | 47c | 759.82$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.11 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Jets | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Jets | 53c | 641.51$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.51 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Browns | 48c | 505$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Browns | 51c | 489.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Browns | 49c | 428.58$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Browns | 53c | 428.57$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.14 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Browns | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Browns | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Jets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jets | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Browns | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Browns | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Browns | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Jets | 52c | 145.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Jets | 52c | 124.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Browns | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Browns | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Browns | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…48b1backed Jets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…c884backed Browns | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6efe…43b8backed Jets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…2705backed Browns | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Browns | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…8245backed Browns | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…966fbacked Jets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…c5d3backed Jets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed Browns | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Browns | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…cf64backed Browns | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Jets | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Jets | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Jets | 51c | 42.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Browns | 47c | 36.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Browns | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Browns (-2.5)this page
- Browns Team Total: O/U 29.5Under won
- Browns vs. JetsJets won
- Browns vs. Jets: O/U 36.5Over won
- Browns vs. Jets: O/U 37.5Over won
- Browns vs. Jets: O/U 38.5Over won
- Spread: Browns (-1.5)Jets won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.