Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mitch McConnell applaud during Trump's address to Congress?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfefd7431bf09428d3fb94b3cd383c34d46e7873156db3ef06d041264a3e6d2f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked No | 11c | 1,384$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 7c | 754.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 348.15$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.41 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 8c | 273$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed No | 6c | 230.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.14 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…f8afbacked No | 6c | 221$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,685.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…0377backed Yes | 24c | 198$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 8c | 162.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb9…b523backed No | 23c | 155$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 70c | 116.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd40…719ebacked No | 76c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbf…7271backed No | 23c | 91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 21c | 74.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88c…33bcbacked No | 52c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd2…dd15backed No | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fe…16debacked Yes | 77c | 63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c75…399fbacked Yes | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…64f4backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…5ee8backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…64f8backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…24d4backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…794bbacked Yes | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…a791backed Yes | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…d4febacked Yes | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6874…2977backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ab…fb83backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8730…e823backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5044…3066backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…4aaebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…319dbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…eb39backed No | 52c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccb…e9f5backed Yes | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c7…c63cbacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b99…5f5cbacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…bc17backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a65…7895backed Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…475cbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mitch McConnell applaud during Trump's address to Congress?this page
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez applaud during Trump's address to Congress?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders applaud during Trump's address to Congress?Yes won
- Will Chuck Schumer applaud during Trump's address to Congress?Yes won
- Will Hakeem Jeffries applaud during Trump's address to Congress?Yes won
- Will Ilhan Omar applaud during Trump's address to Congress?No won
- Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress?No won
- Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.