Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff6f22f51c15c0a20542ebe7edf0e989aaf4f3c5b016b2b5b386ffa445b6c886
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 1c | 1,721$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 732.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 9c | 728.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 705.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 703.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 691.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 9c | 641.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 12c | 641.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 594.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 8c | 580.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…3c72backed Yes | 2c | 524.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 499.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 458.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 8c | 447.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 11c | 415.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 72c | 414$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 10c | 403.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 10c | 394.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 358.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 11c | 326.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 318.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 253.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 12c | 252$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 244.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 20c | 201.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 197.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 197.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 13c | 193.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 191.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 12c | 184.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 11c | 166.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…9c96backed Yes | 9c | 166.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…23fcbacked Yes | 30c | 160.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 9c | 157.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 10c | 150.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed Yes | 11c | 138.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 78c | 137.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 9c | 106.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 19c | 103.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 16c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 20c | 95.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed Yes | 15c | 91.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 14c | 86.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 23c | 74.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 33c | 73.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed Yes | 26c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed No | 78c | 60.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 19c | 56.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…1215backed Yes | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 39.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7b81backed Yes | 34c | 37.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…b23bbacked No | 69c | 32.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 75c | 27.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…e57abacked No | 75c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.