Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a7ec581dcd6f5e0b62ecac0daf17379647f5059267237236a8feac7d0a1acb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 0c | 20,487$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195f…2b91backed Yes | 1c | 19,165$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 0c | 16,756$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 0c | 3,384$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,678$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 1c | 2,338$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,180$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes | 5c | 2,010$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,821$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,467$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 22c | 1,417$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.14 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,151$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 1,050$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.97 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 893.09$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 39c | 717.92$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.77 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 79c | 676.68$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 661.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 635.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…ed6fbacked Yes | 4c | 501.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 349.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Yes | 52c | 283.54$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 276.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked No | 55c | 272$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 24c | 255.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 24c | 253.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 5c | 233.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 207.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…87f7backed No | 70c | 207.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 8c | 197.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 172.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 72c | 136.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…310bbacked Yes | 8c | 123.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 42c | 113.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 16c | 80.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 25c | 76.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 32c | 74.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…c778backed No | 68c | 71.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 45c | 67.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 24c | 67.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 63.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 24c | 63.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…96f5backed No | 78c | 56.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 61c | 50.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 27c | 50.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 39c | 49.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 79c | 45.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 43c | 44.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 39c | 42.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 67c | 36.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 47c | 31.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 79c | 30.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 65c | 26.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 50c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 63c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.