TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes31c686.88$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6916335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes2c640.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.325,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked No80c616.82$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.692050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No76c471.47$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9719060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c437.58$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.037,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5581…8495backed No76c432.17$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.184062.5%25 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes24c369.67$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.334621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes6c366.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5718316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes19c320.58$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3759121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c320.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes7c318.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26eb…c940backed Yes4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes33c249.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No72c216.19$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.261,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes15c210.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c206.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.439,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes33c199.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.998762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c5…48c4backed Yes27c197.04$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c185.01$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.442,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes8c159.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes27c159.07$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.954452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes22c145.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes22c143.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6856118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No67c131.8$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4961760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c113.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.69,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes27c110.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76c…9df3backed Yes27c100.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.886547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes30c97.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.941,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No70c97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.129953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No69c93.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5916575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes29c85.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5426738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes33c85.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.987728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes26c82.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.637326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No72c81.16$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1152571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c80.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes25c80.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9725536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes25c78.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6698738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes17c78.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.431,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No72c75.35$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2926566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c71.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7f…8048backed Yes35c66.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c65.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2327167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes22c64.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.119028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c60.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes34c60.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.551618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b06…ae19backed Yes23c60.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes29c59.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1926236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes23c56.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.369747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes20c56.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3811644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes21c55.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8447442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a23…184abacked No67c55.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.291070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No65c55.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.352,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes24c55.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.117643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c52.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.831,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes27c50.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5813042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.516157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c49.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a80…7deabacked Yes29c49.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+49.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c49.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.14,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes33c48.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7230442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb15…46b0backed Yes34c47.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes31c46.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6633349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No71c43.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7914671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No68c42.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3811874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5b…7dc6backed Yes24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c34…57f6backed Yes29c41.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x172e…997fbacked Yes29c41.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.082744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6a…bc77backed No71c41.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.011172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes28c40.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2721235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dea…3962backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No68c38.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4148672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes32c37.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x395b…b370backed No69c36.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.43771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes33c36.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.947653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2736…fdb9backed No69c35.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.881978.9%15 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1631…e954backed Yes29c35.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No68c34.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1517066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No78c30.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05a5…40aebacked No69c29.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.132075%15 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b7…b30abacked No75c29.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.195474.1%40 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked No70c28.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.53636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No68c28.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.179779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No77c28.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.559176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9814…c055backed No75c27.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0317861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No70c23.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1140777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No79c22.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6927376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No67c21.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1417376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No68c21.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.837777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa061…abc0backed No70c20.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No66c20.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.954070%28 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No72c19.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.496479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.