TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,062
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,062 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes7c833.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes18c584.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes4c479.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes22c436.9$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.954,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes11c430.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8111757.3%67 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2881…e7a6backed No74c410.46$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c400.64$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c400.56$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes17c367.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0434918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5581…8495backed No79c328.51$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.494062.5%25 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes17c327.06$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.061,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes9c300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No74c296.85$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.37347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c280.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes15c268.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3847442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes8c267.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.232944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes8c265$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes16c232.27$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5359121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaea…95a9backed Yes14c231.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.211729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c226.24$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.519,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c176.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c158.12$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.884,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c5…48c4backed Yes26c155$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b06…ae19backed Yes13c149.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2493…e9ffbacked Yes17c135.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes16c121.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.397913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.846232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes16c118.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.921,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c114.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.031,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes28c111$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0856118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes26c104.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4214829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No76c101.51$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1713424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235322.6%12 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes25c99.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.892334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e8…9a56backed Yes36c98.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.212524%6 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes26c96.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.071,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c88.47$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.861,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…3c72backed Yes14c85.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9890%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97fb…87f7backed Yes23c84.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.431520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7f…8048backed Yes29c83.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes24c80.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.577326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes35c79.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.067728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1746…41eebacked Yes25c74.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes15c73.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba96…7080backed No69c69.46$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2812560.8%76 W · 49 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c68.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes28c67.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1103…57e3backed No74c65.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.816355.6%35 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked No72c65.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a9…d211backed Yes30c64.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.473818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick21cpaid+81.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76c…9df3backed Yes31c60.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.616547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes30c57.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes37c57.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.387653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No78c51.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4110569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb15…46b0backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1412735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c49.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…d8a6backed Yes22c47.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6170%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes30c46.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8533349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5309…06b0backed Yes42c45.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.84742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No43c42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7826327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18c9…5e91backed Yes28c40.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0f…2823backed Yes26c40.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked No74c39.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3711145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…cf55backed No72c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes28c36.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.366137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes33c36.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.132920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes29c36.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3918316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No70c34.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3911652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c31.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.659,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x208c…21c7backed No69c29.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc91a…60c4backed No73c26.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6717861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e35…ddcebacked No71c25.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.491866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c25.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked No67c24.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.123636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c23.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.862,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x592c…90e2backed No68c21.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf9…96e1backed No73c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.45749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No74c19.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1941460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51a4…676cbacked No70c15.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3208…768fbacked No76c15.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.