Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46d9531760d9248021d065fb7fd7aa193b9806a4e7e7de4845669ff46a4ba90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 833.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 18c | 584.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 479.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 436.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 11c | 430.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2881…e7a6backed No | 74c | 410.46$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 400.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 400.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 17c | 367.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 79c | 328.51$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 327.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 74c | 296.85$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 23c | 280.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 15c | 268.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed Yes | 8c | 267.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 8c | 265$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 232.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 14c | 231.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 226.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 176.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 158.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…48c4backed Yes | 26c | 155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…ae19backed Yes | 13c | 149.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…e9ffbacked Yes | 17c | 135.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 16c | 121.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 118.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 114.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 26c | 104.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 101.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed Yes | 36c | 98.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 96.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 88.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…3c72backed Yes | 14c | 85.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…87f7backed Yes | 23c | 84.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8048backed Yes | 29c | 83.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 24c | 80.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 35c | 79.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked Yes | 25c | 74.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 15c | 73.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 69c | 69.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 68.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes | 28c | 67.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +118%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 74c | 65.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 72c | 65.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 30c | 64.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 31c | 60.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 37c | 57.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 78c | 51.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…46b0backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…d8a6backed Yes | 22c | 47.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 30c | 46.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…06b0backed Yes | 42c | 45.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…5e91backed Yes | 28c | 40.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0f…2823backed Yes | 26c | 40.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 74c | 39.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…cf55backed No | 72c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 28c | 36.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 33c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 29c | 36.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 70c | 34.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…21c7backed No | 69c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…60c4backed No | 73c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked No | 71c | 25.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 67c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592c…90e2backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…676cbacked No | 70c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…768fbacked No | 76c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.