NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Saints: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8a6897407f419e0a2600d3dd6b71d7943a31cc8f3366af9a13db8859a5d285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 13,571$6,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,161.69 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 7,897$4,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,106.44 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.16 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 3,018$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.36 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 1,716$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.17 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 56c | 1,040$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.9 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 53c | 671.7$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 499.69$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 59c | 193.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…dc73backed Under | 48c | 82.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 39.5this page
- Jets vs. SaintsSaints won
- Jets vs. Saints: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Saints (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-4.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-5.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-6.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.