NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Saints: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f6a3d0d52c5a9bf9eddd7d8aa251ca7728ee6266f520e4a697e15b0e1012239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 72,391$36,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,234.89 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 51c | 41,643$21,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,237.8 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Over | 49c | 21,669$10,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,618 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Over | 48c | 18,000$8,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,639.99 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 13,450$6,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,700.4 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 49c | 9,184$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 9,141$4,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,387.68 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 8,047$3,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,983.18 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Under | 52c | 4,780$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 49c | 3,995$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.8 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 1,480$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.72 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Under | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 51c | 756.86$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.96 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Over | 48c | 199.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 198.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 51c | 104.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Over | 51c | 101.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Over | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Over | 51c | 83.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Over | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…996dbacked Under | 50c | 59.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Under | 49c | 54.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Over | 51c | 50.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 48.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 45.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…307abacked Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…823cbacked Over | 50c | 42.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3f0abacked Over | 51c | 41.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 47c | 34.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 40.5this page
- Jets vs. SaintsSaints won
- Jets vs. Saints: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: Saints (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-4.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-5.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-6.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.