NFL · resolved market
Spread: Saints (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4bb68573cefd919d8f66a573464ed64eca747007f9e3de1187179bfb9847ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Saints, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 41c | 7,500$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,075 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Saints | 59c | 6,371$3,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.93 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jets | 42c | 3,002$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.66 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Saints | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Saints | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 57c | 697.67$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jets | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Saints | 59c | 556$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Saints | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Jets | 48c | 385$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Jets | 42c | 104$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Jets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Saints | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Jets | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jets | 50c | 48.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Jets | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Jets | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Saints | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Saints | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Saints | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Saints | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saints (-4.5)this page
- Jets vs. SaintsSaints won
- Jets vs. Saints: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 39.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Saints (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-5.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-6.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.