NFL · resolved market
Spread: Saints (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0a016a4f46041095011f52e546fa0d631f55171053337319c67f4feab48547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Saints, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Jets | 50c | 66,492$32,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,975.36 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Saints | 52c | 34,940$18,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,771.43 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Saints | 51c | 29,449$15,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,444.97 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Jets | 49c | 16,000$7,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,840 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Saints | 51c | 13,000$6,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,370 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Saints | 52c | 11,000$5,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,280 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Saints | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Jets | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Jets | 49c | 6,630$3,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248.7 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 49c | 6,399$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,283.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Jets | 49c | 4,900$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.79 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Saints | 49c | 4,180$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.43 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jets | 51c | 3,258$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.44 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Saints | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Saints | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Saints | 52c | 2,278$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.95 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Jets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Jets | 50c | 1,980$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.2 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Saints | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Saints | 52c | 1,483$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.29 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Jets | 48c | 937.5$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…c91ebacked Jets | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Saints | 52c | 578$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.44 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Saints | 48c | 426.36$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.71 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Saints | 52c | 384.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.63 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jets | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Jets | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Jets | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Saints | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Saints | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Saints | 51c | 204$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Jets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Jets | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Jets | 50c | 194.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Saints | 50c | 175.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Saints | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Jets | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Jets | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jets | 48c | 113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Jets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Saints | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jets | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Saints | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Jets | 49c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Jets | 50c | 98.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Saints | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Jets | 48c | 94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Saints | 51c | 92.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Saints | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…b729backed Jets | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Saints | 51c | 77.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jets | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Jets | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Saints | 48c | 68.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Jets | 49c | 66.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Jets | 49c | 63.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Jets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Saints | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Jets | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Saints | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Saints | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Jets | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Saints | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Saints | 52c | 39.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Jets | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…88dcbacked Saints | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jets | 49c | 24.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Jets | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Saints | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Saints | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcf…9182backed Saints | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Saints | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…99b5backed Jets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saints (-6.5)this page
- Jets vs. SaintsSaints won
- Jets vs. Saints: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 39.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Saints (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-4.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-5.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.