NFL · resolved market
Spread: Saints (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x413af06c0b8375dfa225cf22dfc8a130bd8340a94b988b56b130c97b6df8f769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Saints, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbcc9…26fbbacked Saints | 57c | 66,332$37,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,466.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jets | 42c | 19,012$7,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,985 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 44c | 13,500$5,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,940 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jets | 43c | 12,002$5,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,165.05 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jets | 43c | 11,869$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,103.57 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jets | 43c | 7,441$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.63 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Jets | 46c | 2,369$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.68 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Saints | 51c | 1,031$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.1 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jets | 43c | 576$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.68 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jets | 42c | 204.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Jets | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Jets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Jets | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Jets | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Jets | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Saints | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Saints | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saints (-5.5)this page
- Jets vs. SaintsSaints won
- Jets vs. Saints: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 39.5Under won
- Jets vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Saints (-3.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-4.5)Saints won
- Spread: Saints (-6.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.