Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8b8d5da4a1bf50a861c73967b7916a4c2e6efaa2870a61e53b0dbfc0adf25f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof L1ga Team, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed Aurora | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed L1ga Team | 20c | 983.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.73 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team | 16c | 677.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed L1ga Team | 10c | 456.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked L1ga Team | 18c | 289.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…958ebacked Aurora | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed L1ga Team | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed L1ga Team | 23c | 215.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…58a7backed L1ga Team | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed L1ga Team | 17c | 161.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed L1ga Team | 13c | 156.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed L1ga Team | 23c | 139.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed L1ga Team | 14c | 130.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Aurora | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed L1ga Team | 20c | 117.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ab…95f6backed L1ga Team | 20c | 101.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked L1ga Team | 20c | 78.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked L1ga Team | 16c | 77.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed L1ga Team | 22c | 76.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…abdfbacked Aurora | 76c | 67.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed L1ga Team | 21c | 51.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked L1ga Team | 24c | 49.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 243 | 43.6%106 W · 137 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…ed4fbacked Aurora | 76c | 48.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Aurora | 77c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Aurora | 80c | 24.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Aurora | 80c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Aurora | 79c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…148dbacked Aurora | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…9b3abacked Aurora | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.