Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bbc964df05e52a7d8a818f7dc470fef778e80ce5d4f229112e013c765f0528f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof L1ga Team, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $476,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $634,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed L1ga Team | 23c | 29,100$6,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,636.81 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora | 76c | 18,734$14,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,464.16 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked L1ga Team | 25c | 15,108$3,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 12,500$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…9a4abacked L1ga Team | 25c | 12,463$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.78 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team | 24c | 11,596$2,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783.04 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…b814backed Aurora | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 241 | 53.1%128 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked L1ga Team | 22c | 10,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 78c | 9,925$7,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.44 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…158ebacked Aurora | 77c | 7,989$6,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.72 | 235 | 61.7%145 W · 90 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 7,558$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.25 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed L1ga Team | 20c | 6,539$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…2e5fbacked Aurora | 76c | 5,263$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.16 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 76c | 5,131$3,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.51 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora | 78c | 5,026$3,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.8 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked L1ga Team | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…b46bbacked L1ga Team | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Aurora | 77c | 4,879$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.12 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora | 74c | 4,587$3,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.58 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed L1ga Team | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.96 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 77c | 3,750$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.64 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed L1ga Team | 22c | 3,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Aurora | 77c | 3,256$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.18 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 77c | 3,004$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.14 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…40e5backed Aurora | 79c | 3,000$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 334 | 53%177 W · 157 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed L1ga Team | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 77c | 2,854$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.59 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…7014backed Aurora | 76c | 2,632$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.58 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…1ccebacked Aurora | 79c | 2,100$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed L1ga Team | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…2b13backed Aurora | 78c | 1,921$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.97 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed L1ga Team | 23c | 1,821$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.82 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 1,780$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.85 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed L1ga Team | 22c | 1,775$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.65 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed L1ga Team | 24c | 1,746$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.61 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…5667backed L1ga Team | 21c | 1,706$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed L1ga Team | 21c | 1,641$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.61 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora | 76c | 1,570$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.81 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 1,491$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.26 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team | 22c | 1,483$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.67 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Aurora | 76c | 1,481$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.31 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…d152backed Aurora | 78c | 1,370$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.08 | 211 | 58.3%123 W · 88 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…5dc6backed Aurora | 77c | 1,295$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.47 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 1,284$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 319 | 36.7%117 W · 202 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed L1ga Team | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora | 79c | 1,250$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed L1ga Team | 23c | 1,247$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.91 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c52…1a59backed Aurora | 76c | 1,242$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.08 | 63 | 74.6%47 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora | 75c | 1,232$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.01 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed L1ga Team | 22c | 1,190$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.91 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 1,155$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.65 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 78c | 1,052$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.88 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed L1ga Team | 3c | 1,012$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Aurora | 77c | 1,011$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.13 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed L1ga Team | 13c | 1,002$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.27 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed L1ga Team | 24c | 1,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed L1ga Team | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Aurora | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…03a6backed L1ga Team | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…00e2backed L1ga Team | 2c | 985.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 72c | 981.88$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.92 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c3bfbacked Aurora | 79c | 951$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Aurora | 75c | 900$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora | 73c | 900$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…8598backed L1ga Team | 4c | 889.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Aurora | 76c | 871.08$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Aurora | 77c | 861.88$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Aurora | 79c | 850$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf071…04d6backed L1ga Team | 22c | 800$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed L1ga Team | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed L1ga Team | 20c | 750.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Aurora | 76c | 750$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed L1ga Team | 19c | 714$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 76c | 711$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.71 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Aurora | 76c | 704.39$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked L1ga Team | 22c | 645.76$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 75c | 629.2$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…86e1backed L1ga Team | 8c | 610.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked L1ga Team | 4c | 582.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed Aurora | 78c | 567.85$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 541.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 78c | 510.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked L1ga Team | 23c | 508.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed L1ga Team | 20c | 504$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked L1ga Team | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 32.5%55 W · 114 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8a…5f49backed Aurora | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…3f04backed Aurora | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Aurora | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed L1ga Team | 24c | 498$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed L1ga Team | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Aurora | 79c | 445.1$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 76c | 427.26$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team | 14c | 394.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…54bcbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 352.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…156fbacked L1ga Team | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 78c | 310.26$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Aurora | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed L1ga Team | 24c | 293$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked L1ga Team | 21c | 282.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.