TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof L1ga Team, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$476,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$634,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,180 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed L1ga Team23c29,100$6,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,636.8171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora76c18,734$14,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,464.1628159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked L1ga Team25c15,108$3,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked L1ga Team23c12,500$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92519847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked L1ga Team25c12,463$3,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080.7823435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team24c11,596$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.041,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Aurora77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30024153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked L1ga Team22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.997236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora78c9,925$7,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.4496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Aurora77c7,989$6,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.7223561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team19c7,558$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.251,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed L1ga Team20c6,539$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31531248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked Aurora76c5,263$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.163652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora76c5,131$3,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.5171454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora78c5,026$3,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.813960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked L1ga Team22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked L1ga Team25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25024246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora77c4,879$3,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.1243344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora74c4,587$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.5853764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed L1ga Team24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9629348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora77c3,750$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.641,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed L1ga Team22c3,500$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Aurora77c3,256$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.1851049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora77c3,004$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.141,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Aurora79c3,000$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.533453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed L1ga Team1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora77c2,854$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.591,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed Aurora76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.5810453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked Aurora79c2,100$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4419042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed L1ga Team1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed Aurora78c1,921$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.9711551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed L1ga Team23c1,821$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.8211654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked L1ga Team23c1,780$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.8535951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed L1ga Team22c1,775$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.651,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed L1ga Team24c1,746$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.6160251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed L1ga Team21c1,706$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3662920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed L1ga Team21c1,641$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6165441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora76c1,570$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.8179859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked L1ga Team19c1,491$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.2670236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team22c1,483$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.671,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Aurora76c1,481$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.3148053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Aurora78c1,370$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.0821158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Aurora77c1,295$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.4714557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked L1ga Team23c1,284$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed L1ga Team24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora79c1,250$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5751364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed L1ga Team23c1,247$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9131547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Aurora76c1,242$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.086374.6%47 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+26.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora75c1,232$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.0169132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed L1ga Team22c1,190$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9145750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked L1ga Team23c1,155$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.651,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora78c1,052$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.8886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed L1ga Team3c1,012$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Aurora77c1,011$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.1345352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed L1ga Team13c1,002$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed L1ga Team24c1,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23527153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed L1ga Team21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21028341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332f…1ee8backed Aurora75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2509253.3%49 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4309…03a6backed L1ga Team22c999.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc065…00e2backed L1ga Team2c985.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.753759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora72c981.88$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.9295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0472…c3bfbacked Aurora79c951$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.718048.8%39 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Aurora75c900$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22525935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora73c900$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24325752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed L1ga Team4c889.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.744136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc9d…de16backed Aurora76c871.08$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.068965.2%58 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Aurora77c861.88$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.234351.2%22 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Aurora79c850$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.527060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf071…04d6backed L1ga Team22c800$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.381822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed L1ga Team2c800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed L1ga Team20c750.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.874025%10 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Aurora76c750$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18054058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed L1ga Team19c714$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora76c711$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7141056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Aurora76c704.39$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0530155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked L1ga Team22c645.76$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7543049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora75c629.2$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.349455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed L1ga Team8c610.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked L1ga Team4c582.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1137811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Aurora78c567.85$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9320949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked L1ga Team23c541.53$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora78c510.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked L1ga Team23c508.24$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11516139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed L1ga Team20c504$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked L1ga Team2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1116932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Aurora77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1157263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed Aurora80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1006660.6%40 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Aurora76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed L1ga Team24c498$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3415150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed L1ga Team22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Aurora79c445.1$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4750749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora76c427.26$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5458152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team14c394.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.541,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked L1ga Team23c352.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked L1ga Team22c350$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora78c310.26$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2672154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Aurora79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6353758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed L1ga Team24c293$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3225248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked L1ga Team21c282.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.