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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof L1ga Team, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$301,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$377,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,520 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed L1ga Team22c30,450$6,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,587.0571143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked L1ga Team17c20,080$3,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,434.6889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora77c12,852$9,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,976.1928159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora76c12,145$9,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,951.111,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked L1ga Team25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5007236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora77c9,296$7,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.8756955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team23c8,919$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.861,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Aurora78c7,000$5,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.530667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Aurora79c5,929$4,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.8124153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Aurora77c5,324$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.1523561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed L1ga Team23c4,706$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.368250%41 W · 41 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Aurora75c4,223$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.612931%9 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-40.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked L1ga Team22c3,800$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.019042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked L1ga Team26c3,743$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.173652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora75c3,716$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.5595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed L1ga Team24c3,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team18c3,341$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.281,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Aurora77c3,333$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.5911654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Aurora78c3,175$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.535951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked L1ga Team23c3,036$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.6831936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed L1ga Team23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked L1ga Team22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed L1ga Team1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed L1ga Team24c2,922$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.0491553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team23c2,720$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.931,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked L1ga Team23c2,640$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.5928251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed Aurora77c2,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5759455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed L1ga Team20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked L1ga Team23c2,262$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.421,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed L1ga Team23c2,221$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.281,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora75c2,197$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.4443344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed L1ga Team24c2,195$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.929042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked L1ga Team23c2,194$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.477458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team17c2,129$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.221,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4e…9d89backed Aurora75c2,100$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed Aurora75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed L1ga Team1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Aurora76c1,939$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.3635151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed L1ga Team25c1,800$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4466839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked L1ga Team22c1,716$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3970236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked L1ga Team26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed L1ga Team2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.36132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed Aurora75c1,440$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.964746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Aurora79c1,384$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3730155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Aurora75c1,150$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed L1ga Team10c1,100$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora75c1,053$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.1286659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora78c1,020$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.456852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked L1ga Team23c1,006$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.651,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed L1ga Team20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed L1ga Team25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee6…fe26backed L1ga Team15c997.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed L1ga Team22c996.58$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8945750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0472…c3bfbacked Aurora80c994$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.88048.8%39 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Aurora78c842.96$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.111,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e0…6ec6backed L1ga Team9c800$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked L1ga Team5c760$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4322031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed L1ga Team20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed L1ga Team4c741.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Aurora77c734$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8215639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Aurora74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18227060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Aurora78c699.98$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1545961%36 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora74c670.09$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.665441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Aurora77c668$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.646744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora77c649$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8136248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Aurora75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15013142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee45…200abacked Aurora79c598.21$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7818046.1%83 W · 97 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora80c550$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.551364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed Aurora75c533.17$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.294577.8%35 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Aurora79c517.68$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.211,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked L1ga Team22c507.23$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1950749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Aurora76c500$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.534860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked L1ga Team23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11516328.8%47 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Aurora72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed L1ga Team16c499.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Aurora76c495$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.841050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…e2c4backed Aurora79c466.22$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.224141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e96…e128backed L1ga Team22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010937.6%41 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5940…94c8backed L1ga Team19c438.66$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.364835.4%17 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc159…f3c8backed L1ga Team23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019238.5%74 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1242…9077backed Aurora77c426.21$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.82661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+51.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf902…a267backed L1ga Team24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…184cbacked Aurora79c414.6$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.073562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked L1ga Team23c408.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8614655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked L1ga Team23c395$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9dff…7fecbacked Aurora75c392$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985966.1%39 W · 20 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked L1ga Team12c390$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4537441.2%154 W · 220 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Aurora76c383.33$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9245457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked L1ga Team24c383.33$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed L1ga Team23c382.61$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8826147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Aurora79c379.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.753228.1%9 W · 23 L-10.4wins-0.33per pick61cpaid-57.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Aurora77c329.99$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked L1ga Team19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5749644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Aurora80c296.96$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6555561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed L1ga Team26c285$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.115950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Aurora78c278.26$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.229045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Aurora75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6710566.7%70 W · 35 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked L1ga Team23c261.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.044252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Aurora77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7416256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.