Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffbb99cf2b66bbf26b485cba9215adacab6a26b2b03598d77485f773af77d74e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 17,877$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 18c | 17,229$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 75c | 7,770$5,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.59 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 5,884$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.27 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes | 25c | 5,418$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 4,462$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.56 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Yes | 25c | 3,820$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 17c | 3,060$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.27 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 17c | 2,362$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.61 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,465$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 17c | 1,343$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.35 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,324$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…2f54backed Yes | 18c | 1,310$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 15c | 797.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 692.02$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 17c | 487.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 6c | 432.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Yes | 24c | 393.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Yes | 26c | 367.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…0586backed Yes | 21c | 357.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…77b5backed Yes | 13c | 269$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 17c | 268.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 18c | 256.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 18c | 255.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Yes | 17c | 219.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 18c | 211.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 18c | 169.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 17c | 167.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…0557backed Yes | 17c | 164.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 17c | 139.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 18c | 132.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…1f7dbacked Yes | 11c | 128.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 77c | 128.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 17c | 124.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 18c | 123.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 115.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09f…fc56backed Yes | 25c | 114.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 17c | 111.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…8c50backed Yes | 19c | 100.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 25c | 99.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…aa69backed Yes | 17c | 98.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 19c | 95.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 75c | 89.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 78.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…a613backed Yes | 19c | 78.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 14c | 74.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…590ebacked Yes | 23c | 63.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…306ebacked Yes | 20c | 58.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 77c | 57.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 18c | 57.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 53.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 77c | 35.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 75c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed No | 75c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed No | 75c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 75c | 22.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…2193backed No | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 76c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed No | 76c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.