Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed1598d84816de405c72b84bd608f2582c05aff4bdaa4145c5f0f8fa1145ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $322,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 1c | 48,372$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes | 15c | 19,929$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.35 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 17,755$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.77 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Yes | 3c | 9,053$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f8…d7d3backed Yes | 15c | 8,088$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f102backed Yes | 16c | 8,072$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 15c | 8,020$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.62 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 15c | 7,605$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.28 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 5,880$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.04 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 77c | 4,165$3,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.33 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…a237backed Yes | 15c | 3,986$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.87 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 3,824$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 16c | 3,646$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 16c | 3,466$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.62 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,394$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.24 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked Yes | 15c | 2,041$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.22 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 15c | 2,040$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.05 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 1,909$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.77 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 1,243$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.57 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 79c | 1,222$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.7 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…ff11backed No | 70c | 1,068$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked Yes | 7c | 944.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 14c | 933.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 17c | 888.51$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 12c | 716.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…1a55backed Yes | 15c | 682.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 60c | 648.5$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.4 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Yes | 15c | 632.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…b77abacked Yes | 15c | 584.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…9b71backed Yes | 40c | 506.1$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 34c | 502.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 16c | 444.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 33c | 436.27$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…dc9abacked Yes | 31c | 417.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 35c | 403$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…59bfbacked Yes | 15c | 379.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 15c | 335.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 15c | 316.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 17c | 304.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Yes | 32c | 299.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 16c | 299.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed No | 68c | 294.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e2…a67ebacked Yes | 6c | 286.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Yes | 17c | 285.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…5e69backed Yes | 5c | 264.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 13c | 242.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 15c | 222.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Yes | 17c | 214.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No | 67c | 199.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed No | 69c | 199.88$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…0557backed Yes | 15c | 160.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes | 14c | 159.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 15c | 158.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 142.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 33c | 141.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 14c | 132.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…3a7abacked Yes | 31c | 123.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 69c | 120.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 40c | 119.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…e677backed Yes | 15c | 113.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 15c | 102.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa2…ba3ebacked No | 69c | 100.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 99.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…a21ebacked Yes | 17c | 95.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed Yes | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 15c | 88.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Yes | 19c | 79.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 68c | 73.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…f555backed Yes | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 80c | 66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0516backed Yes | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed No | 68c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Yes | 31c | 32.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22cd…a364backed No | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…de4cbacked No | 68c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-19?this page
- Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.