MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffd009e9b03f46a288b844070b7f21a42e65537f908330b72c4207bd24b75302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Pittsburgh Pirates, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8fd…442fbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 3,061$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 3,056$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.56 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 2,497$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.71 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 1,790$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 5c | 787.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 21c | 504.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Detroit Tigers | 76c | 463.67$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 444$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 348.48$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 330$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 296.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 271$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 253.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 250.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 240.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 208.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 190.63$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 186.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 175.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…e5bebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 145.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 117$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 102$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 99.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 59.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 58.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 55.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 45.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…966bbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 40.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 33.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Detroit Tigers | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.