MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62e674de9ab67a3f4667cd98980d12aa915805551adc7a318fb90877a729e7bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $303,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 48c | 184,576$88,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88,500.88 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 168,608$85,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,418.24 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 52c | 72,411$37,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,757.14 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 42,201$21,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,753.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 21,907$10,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,943.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 52c | 12,222$6,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,866.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 54c | 10,523$5,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,847 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 46c | 6,094$2,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,793.43 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 4,724$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 3,794$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 2,428$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.54 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,135$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 48c | 826.52$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.73 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 825$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 566$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 42c | 492.45$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.23 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 441.26$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.16 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Over | 47c | 407.35$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 339$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.72 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 52c | 203$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 179.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 176.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 53c | 149.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 29c | 136.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…98cebacked Under | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 103.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 97.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 49c | 89.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 72.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 29c | 64.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 49c | 56.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 48c | 55.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 53c | 50.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 53c | 48.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 50c | 46.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed Under | 53c | 46.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Under | 53c | 44.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 44c | 39.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Over | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 78c | 31.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 52c | 29.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 28.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…8cc6backed Under | 61c | 27.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 52c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 51c | 20.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…ab75backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 17.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.