Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffde7f625f7ed2509a122ab7a2ab51a3253f2fa59bce91e4aa699523a31adfc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 63c | 2,739$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.42 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e47backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…311ebacked No | 61c | 700$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 35c | 700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 68c | 597.93$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 40c | 494.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.36 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 69c | 429.92$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 361.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 315$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…3f9cbacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 16c | 287.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 19c | 217.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 200$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 48c | 199.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…e857backed Yes | 48c | 179$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdc…1c39backed No | 52c | 172$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…6fe5backed No | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 72c | 164$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 24c | 147.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…c7dabacked No | 54c | 135$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 50c | 132.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…1f7fbacked No | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 125$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…a94fbacked Yes | 46c | 122$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…a9cebacked Yes | 46c | 92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…2998backed No | 56c | 89.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…a066backed No | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…15fcbacked No | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 58c | 74.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…5b26backed Yes | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…f8f1backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f2…3d1abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 52c | 49.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…15c1backed Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…ae66backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…43aabacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…f991backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…0131backed Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1e…58b9backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa2…9a20backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.